I got a three. And I know there are two other people out there with my name: I've googled it and one is a TX beauty queen and one raises scottish terriers or something.
But anyway, their methodology is faulty; they assume that first and last names are independent. Which I don't believe. So they multiply the empirical probability of your first name times the empirical probability of your last name, then take the result times the US population to get their estimate. Whereas for example, if your last name is O'Hare you are probably more likely to be named Patrick, etc. knowing a last or first name can probably give you a better idea of what the first names are, and vice versa. In some cases, anyway...
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ninetydegrees
no subject
on 2010-01-16 02:29 am (UTC)But anyway, their methodology is faulty; they assume that first and last names are independent. Which I don't believe. So they multiply the empirical probability of your first name times the empirical probability of your last name, then take the result times the US population to get their estimate. Whereas for example, if your last name is O'Hare you are probably more likely to be named Patrick, etc. knowing a last or first name can probably give you a better idea of what the first names are, and vice versa. In some cases, anyway...